View the story by Mike Allen: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8594.html
Key Points:
-Clinton tells a Honolulu-based ABC affiliate that the media, not her campaign, are spreading the Obama plagiarism stories.
-A Clinton campaign memo includes links to videos of Obama and Patrick's speeches.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Obama, Clinton have issues with Spanish
Read the article here: http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/02/fiesta-or-siest.html
Obama: siesta ≠ fiesta
Clinton: Si Se PuedE, not Si Se PuedA.
Obama: siesta ≠ fiesta
Clinton: Si Se PuedE, not Si Se PuedA.
Monday, February 18, 2008
How Hillary Can Win
The article is found at: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8581.html
Notes:
-Clinton has a way to the nomination, but has a very slim margin of error.
-She needs to sweep Ohio, Texas, and Pennslyvania.
-Needs to appeal to superdelegates.
Notes:
-Clinton has a way to the nomination, but has a very slim margin of error.
-She needs to sweep Ohio, Texas, and Pennslyvania.
-Needs to appeal to superdelegates.
Clinton Camp Says Clinton can copy Others' Rhetoric
The Clinton camp would neither confirm nor deny that Clinton has copied others' rhetoric.
Wolfson, the campaign's communications director, said it wouldn't be as big of a deal if Clinton copied another politician's speech, because "Senator Clinton is not running on the strength of her rhetoric."
For the Clinton camp to claim that Obama is plagiarising but Clinton can plagiarize is a bad, bad, bad thing to say.
Wolfson, the campaign's communications director, said it wouldn't be as big of a deal if Clinton copied another politician's speech, because "Senator Clinton is not running on the strength of her rhetoric."
For the Clinton camp to claim that Obama is plagiarising but Clinton can plagiarize is a bad, bad, bad thing to say.
Clinton's Michigan Camp Co-Chair, Joel Ferguson, on Red-State Delegates.
Joel Ferguson, a Michigan superdelegate, makes a comment that will by no means help Clinton's campaign. It's always a bad, bad idea to tick off a section of an electorate, especially with some coming up (TEXAS!).
"Superdelegates are not second-class delegates. The real second-class delegates are the delegates that are picked in red-state caucuses that are never going to vote Democratic."
"Superdelegates are not second-class delegates. The real second-class delegates are the delegates that are picked in red-state caucuses that are never going to vote Democratic."
Clinton camp accuses Obama of Plaigarism
For the story go here: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8570.html
A few key points:
-"Obama apparently ad-libbed the remark, which was not in his text."
-Obama camp accuses Clinton of stealing lines from him, including his slogans.
-From an Obama press conference: "He has occasionally used lines of mine. I have occasionally used some words of his. I know Sen. Clinton has used words of mine as well. I don’t think that is something that workers here are concerned about," he said, adding that "I'm sure I should have" given credit to Patrick."
-Obama says: "I really don’t think this is too big of a deal."
Deval Patrick's Speech
Obama's Similar Speech:
A few key points:
-"Obama apparently ad-libbed the remark, which was not in his text."
-Obama camp accuses Clinton of stealing lines from him, including his slogans.
-From an Obama press conference: "He has occasionally used lines of mine. I have occasionally used some words of his. I know Sen. Clinton has used words of mine as well. I don’t think that is something that workers here are concerned about," he said, adding that "I'm sure I should have" given credit to Patrick."
-Obama says: "I really don’t think this is too big of a deal."
Deval Patrick's Speech
Obama's Similar Speech:
Sunday, February 17, 2008
Poll Results (from PA)
As you may have noticed, there's a poll on the right side of the blog page. Here are the results of the past 2 weeks' poll.
Question: Who are you supporting this election cycle?
Results:
Obama 7 (63%)
Clinton 0 (0%)
McCain 3 (27%)
Romney 0 (0%)
Huckabee 1 (9%)
Paul 0 (0%)
Question: Who are you supporting this election cycle?
Results:
Obama 7 (63%)
Clinton 0 (0%)
McCain 3 (27%)
Romney 0 (0%)
Huckabee 1 (9%)
Paul 0 (0%)
Saturday, February 16, 2008
Predictions for Saturday, Feb. 19
NOTE: The Washington primaries are straw polls; last week's caucuses allocated Washington's delegates.
Dems:
-Washington: If the caucuses are any indication, Washington is Obama's.
-Hawai'i: Obama is Hawaiian by birth, and he has great momentum. Hawai'i will go to Obama.
-Wisconsin: The midwest has gone to Obama, and Wisconsin will follow suit.
**PA predicts another Obama sweep.
GOP:
-Washington: Again, the caucuses went to McCain, and so will the primaries.
-Wisconsin: One word: McCain.
Dems:
-Washington: If the caucuses are any indication, Washington is Obama's.
-Hawai'i: Obama is Hawaiian by birth, and he has great momentum. Hawai'i will go to Obama.
-Wisconsin: The midwest has gone to Obama, and Wisconsin will follow suit.
**PA predicts another Obama sweep.
GOP:
-Washington: Again, the caucuses went to McCain, and so will the primaries.
-Wisconsin: One word: McCain.
Friday, February 15, 2008
Email from Clinton - Let the Smearing Begin
Amid a plethora of requests for donations, the email asks, "When the bright lights are off and the speeches are over, who can you count on to listen to you, to stand up and deliver solutions?" Yes, the smear machine is on.
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Romney asks Delegates to back McCain.
If they do, McCain will be 76 delegates of the 'magic number' to seal the nomination.
Youtube McCain Spoof
For the video this video is a spoof of, you'll have to check the previous posts.
SEIU endorses Obama
The Intl. Service Employees Union, which represents 1.5 million workers, plans to give its nod to Obama in the coming days.
9 days later, we have New Mexico Results
Clinton wins New Mexico, which gave her a 14 delegates and Obama 12.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
James Carville (Clinton backer) on Clinton's campaign
"Make no mistake. If she loses either Texas or Ohio, this thing is done."
Analysis of the Potomac Primaries
Dems: Obama has huge momentum going into next Tuesday, where he will likely sweep, again. It will only take a victory in either Ohio or Texas to essentially seal the race. It is the prediction of PA that he will, in fact, win one of those two states. *** Thus, PA now predicts Obama will win the Democratic nomination. ***
GOP: As predicted, McCain swept last night, but showed that conservatives, as seen in the western part of the state, are his Achilles heel. Nonetheless, he will still be the party's nominee.
GOP: As predicted, McCain swept last night, but showed that conservatives, as seen in the western part of the state, are his Achilles heel. Nonetheless, he will still be the party's nominee.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Maryland Exits
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#MDDEM
Good night for Obama.
Good night for Obama.
Obama wins Maryland (AP predicts)
With less than 1% of the precincts reporting, the AP has called an Obama victory in Maryland. Over 1 hour has passed since the DC polls closed, but no numbers are coming in.
Another Clinton Aide Leaves
Clinton's deputy campaign manager, Mike Henry, has left the campaign. Rising uncertainty in the Clinton camp?
Maryland Polls Extended 90 Minutes
A judge ordered polls in Maryland to remain open for 90 more minutes, to 9:30, as a result of traffic conditions because of the weather in the state.
Monday, February 11, 2008
William Kristol's NY Times Op-Ed on the Democrats
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/11/opinion/11kristol.html?_r=1&ref=opinion&oref=slogin
Clinton : Ohio/Texas :: Giuliani : Florida?
MotherJones asks.
http://www.motherjones.com/mojoblog/archives/2008/02/7175_can_clinton_wai.html
http://www.motherjones.com/mojoblog/archives/2008/02/7175_can_clinton_wai.html
Sunday, February 10, 2008
Maine Dems Analysis
While Obama came out with only a slight net gain in delegates, the momentum he gains from a five contest sweep is substantial. Given this, PA predicts an Obama sweep on Tuesday. This momentum will lead him to a larger lead in pledged delegates, but the contest will be far from over. Obama - 20 (states), Clinton - 11.
Predictions for the Potomac Primaries
Democrats:
Maryland and DC: These contests will go to Obama given the poll numbers (Obama in Maryland by 17.3% - RCP avg.) and the size of the African-American electorate.
Virginia: This, too, will go to Obama. The polls have him up by 21% (RCP Avg.) and his momentum will push him to a fairly large margin (10+%).
This will be another Obama sweep and will give him a sizeable lead among pledged delegates.
Republicans:
McCain may get some competition from Huckabee, but he'll come out victorious on Tuesday. If, however, he does not sweep, realistically, it won't matter, as he's essentially sealed the deal.
Maryland and DC: These contests will go to Obama given the poll numbers (Obama in Maryland by 17.3% - RCP avg.) and the size of the African-American electorate.
Virginia: This, too, will go to Obama. The polls have him up by 21% (RCP Avg.) and his momentum will push him to a fairly large margin (10+%).
This will be another Obama sweep and will give him a sizeable lead among pledged delegates.
Republicans:
McCain may get some competition from Huckabee, but he'll come out victorious on Tuesday. If, however, he does not sweep, realistically, it won't matter, as he's essentially sealed the deal.
Obama Wins Maine (Politico predicts)
With 79% of the precincts reporting, Obama has 59% of the vote, as opposed to Clinton's 41%. The margin is greater than predicted by PA, but, as predicted, Obama took his 5th victory of the weekend.
Clinton Campaign Manager Steps Down
Email from Patti Solis Doyle to Clinton staffers:
"Over a year ago Hillary launched her campaign for President.
Her announcement began a historic effort that has inspired millions and brought hundreds of thousands to their feet all across this nation.
I have been proud to manage this campaign, and prouder still to call Hillary my friend for more than sixteen years. I know that she will make a great President.
This has already been the longest Presidential campaign in the history of our nation, and one that has required enormous sacrifices from all of us and our families.
During the last month I have been working closely with my longtime friend, Maggie Williams.
This week Maggie will begin to assume the duties of campaign manager. I will serve as a senior adviser to Hillary and the campaign and travel with Hillary from time to time on the road. Maggie is a remarkable person and I am confident that she will do a fabulous job.
Although I will continue to see you all at headquarters, I would be remiss if I didn’t thank each of you for your dedication, excellence, and passion over the last year.
You are the best campaign staff in the history of Presidential politics and I am grateful to each of you for your hard work and friendship."
Maggie Williams, a former top Clinton White House aide will be taking Patti's place.
"Over a year ago Hillary launched her campaign for President.
Her announcement began a historic effort that has inspired millions and brought hundreds of thousands to their feet all across this nation.
I have been proud to manage this campaign, and prouder still to call Hillary my friend for more than sixteen years. I know that she will make a great President.
This has already been the longest Presidential campaign in the history of our nation, and one that has required enormous sacrifices from all of us and our families.
During the last month I have been working closely with my longtime friend, Maggie Williams.
This week Maggie will begin to assume the duties of campaign manager. I will serve as a senior adviser to Hillary and the campaign and travel with Hillary from time to time on the road. Maggie is a remarkable person and I am confident that she will do a fabulous job.
Although I will continue to see you all at headquarters, I would be remiss if I didn’t thank each of you for your dedication, excellence, and passion over the last year.
You are the best campaign staff in the history of Presidential politics and I am grateful to each of you for your hard work and friendship."
Maggie Williams, a former top Clinton White House aide will be taking Patti's place.
Saturday, February 9, 2008
Feb. 9th Analysis
Dems:
-Obama is gaining momentum, which he will capitalize upon in the Potomac Primaries on Tuesday, and, if it stands, into the coming weeks. Clinton seems to be banking on Texas and Ohio, but there are a fair number of primaries and caucuses between now and then, and he could build a somewhat sizeable lead.
Republicans:
-Huckabee got a few key wins, but McCain is an unsurmountable candidate now. Conservative republicans were splitting between Romney and Huckabee, and now, with the loss of Romney, conservatives are coming behind Huckabee. If Romney had dropped out on the Monday before Super Tuesday (Mundane Monday?), this could have be an entirely different race.
-Obama is gaining momentum, which he will capitalize upon in the Potomac Primaries on Tuesday, and, if it stands, into the coming weeks. Clinton seems to be banking on Texas and Ohio, but there are a fair number of primaries and caucuses between now and then, and he could build a somewhat sizeable lead.
Republicans:
-Huckabee got a few key wins, but McCain is an unsurmountable candidate now. Conservative republicans were splitting between Romney and Huckabee, and now, with the loss of Romney, conservatives are coming behind Huckabee. If Romney had dropped out on the Monday before Super Tuesday (Mundane Monday?), this could have be an entirely different race.
Predictions for Sunday, Feb. 10th
Maine Dems Caucus:
PA predicts an Obama victory, though delegate-wise, it will be slight: a difference of about 3 delegates.
PA predicts an Obama victory, though delegate-wise, it will be slight: a difference of about 3 delegates.
Obama wins Louisiana (AP Prediction)
With 38% of the precincts reporting, Obama has 53% of the vote, Clinton 39%. This makes tonight a sweep for Obama, including the Virgin Islands.
Washington, Nebraska go to Obama (AP Prediction)
With 73% of precincts reporting, Obama has 69% of the vote, Clinton 31% in Nebraska. 56% of the precincts are reporting in Washington, Obama is carrying 67%, Clinton 32%.
Huckabee wins Kansas
Huckabee has proven me worng, winning 60% of the vote with 100% of precincts reporting. McCain took 24%.
Ron Paul's Attention Diverted to Congressional District
Similar to what happened to Rep. Kucinich, Rep. Paul has come under fire for his representation of his congressional district. Therefore, his attention has been diverted to a reelection bid. As he said in an email to his supporters: "I also have another priority. I have constituents in my home district that I must serve. I cannot and will not let them down. And I have another battle I must face here as well. If I were to lose the primary for my congressional seat, all our opponents would react with glee, and pretend it was a rejection of our ideas. I cannot and will not let that happen."
Friday, February 8, 2008
Predictions for Saturday, Feb. 9
Republicans:
-Louisiana: As he is the undisputed frontrunner, PA predicts McCain will win Lousiana. Of those still in the race, he has the strongest presence in fundraising in the state.
-Kansas: Despite Paul's lead in fundraising in the state, Kansas will go to McCain.
Neither state is WTA, nor do they have enough delegates to seal the nomination for McCain, but this will further cement his frontrunner status.
Democrats:
-Nebraska and Washington: Obama has excellent organization in caucus states and usually does very well in these states. PA predicts Obama will win Nebraska and Washington state. Washington's governor, Christine Gregoire, also endorsed Obama Friday
-Louisiana: Louisiana is the only primary state for Democrats voting Saturday, and, in the 2004 primary, 46% of its Democratic electorate was African-American. Obama has, according to exit polls, struck a chord with the African-American community in general, consistently getting in the ballpark of 80% in that voting base. Therefore, PA predicts Obama will win Louisiana in tomorrow's primary.
Thus, PA predicts Obama will sweep Saturday's primary and caucuses.
-Louisiana: As he is the undisputed frontrunner, PA predicts McCain will win Lousiana. Of those still in the race, he has the strongest presence in fundraising in the state.
-Kansas: Despite Paul's lead in fundraising in the state, Kansas will go to McCain.
Neither state is WTA, nor do they have enough delegates to seal the nomination for McCain, but this will further cement his frontrunner status.
Democrats:
-Nebraska and Washington: Obama has excellent organization in caucus states and usually does very well in these states. PA predicts Obama will win Nebraska and Washington state. Washington's governor, Christine Gregoire, also endorsed Obama Friday
-Louisiana: Louisiana is the only primary state for Democrats voting Saturday, and, in the 2004 primary, 46% of its Democratic electorate was African-American. Obama has, according to exit polls, struck a chord with the African-American community in general, consistently getting in the ballpark of 80% in that voting base. Therefore, PA predicts Obama will win Louisiana in tomorrow's primary.
Thus, PA predicts Obama will sweep Saturday's primary and caucuses.
The Wall Street Journal (Op-Ed) on the Democratic Race
The WSJ seems to think Clinton's campaign is deflating, as Obama's inflates (Law of Conservation of Matter).
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120241915915951669.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries
To sum it up, I note this line: "The day she admitted she'd written herself a check for $5 million, Obama's people crowed they'd just raised $3 million. But then his staff is happy. They're all getting paid."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120241915915951669.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries
To sum it up, I note this line: "The day she admitted she'd written herself a check for $5 million, Obama's people crowed they'd just raised $3 million. But then his staff is happy. They're all getting paid."
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Email from Barack
"One of the things I'm most proud of about our campaign is not the amount of money we've raised, but the number of people giving it.
As of this afternoon, more than 300,000 people have given in 2008 alone, taking ownership of this campaign by making a donation of whatever they can afford.
This has never happened before. No one has ever built a campaign involving so many Americans as true stakeholders.
It speaks volumes not only about the kind of campaign we're running, but also about how we want politics to be.
So many of us have been waiting so long for the time when we could finally expect more from our politics, when we could give more of ourselves and feel truly invested in something bigger than a particular candidate or cause.
This is it. We are the ones we've been waiting for. We are the change that we seek.
We won the most states and the most delegates on Tuesday because a movement of people decided to take back the political process and participate in unprecedented numbers."
As of this afternoon, more than 300,000 people have given in 2008 alone, taking ownership of this campaign by making a donation of whatever they can afford.
This has never happened before. No one has ever built a campaign involving so many Americans as true stakeholders.
It speaks volumes not only about the kind of campaign we're running, but also about how we want politics to be.
So many of us have been waiting so long for the time when we could finally expect more from our politics, when we could give more of ourselves and feel truly invested in something bigger than a particular candidate or cause.
This is it. We are the ones we've been waiting for. We are the change that we seek.
We won the most states and the most delegates on Tuesday because a movement of people decided to take back the political process and participate in unprecedented numbers."
Romney Drops Out
Romney dropped out of the race today, essentially sealing the deal for McCain, as Huckabee is a long shot candidate. I made the prediction of McCain's nomination yesterday, before Romney made his decision. I called it!
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Email from David Plouffe, Obama campaign director
"The Clinton campaign just announced that Hillary and Bill Clinton injected $5 million of their personal fortune into her campaign a few days ago.
This is a dramatic move, and a clear acknowledgement that our campaign has the momentum. We saw undeniable evidence of that last night as the results came in.
Barack Obama won the most states and the most delegates on February 5th.
...
The Clinton infusion of $5 million -- and there are reports it could end up being as much as $20 million -- will give them huge resources for the next set of primaries and caucuses.
...
Just two weeks ago we were behind by double-digits in many of the states that voted yesterday, but Barack won 13 states to 8 states for Hillary Clinton, with one state (New Mexico) still counting votes.
...
We won yesterday because thousands upon thousands of individual supporters canvassed their neighborhoods, talked to their neighbors and friends, and made phone calls to remind their fellow supporters to get out the vote.
And we accomplished all of this with a campaign funded by ordinary people giving only what they can afford.
...
Here are some details about yesterday's historic victory. According to official results and exit polls:
Barack won 2-to-1 in traditionally conservative states where Democrats are hungry for a nominee who can change the map and help Democrats up and down the ticket win in November
Our winning coalition included Americans of every race, background, and gender -- including 64% of women in Georgia
We scored wins in every region of the country -- New England, the Mid-Atlantic, the South, the Midwest, the Rocky Mountain states, and the West
Americans had a clear choice to make yesterday, and they chose Barack Obama."
This is a dramatic move, and a clear acknowledgement that our campaign has the momentum. We saw undeniable evidence of that last night as the results came in.
Barack Obama won the most states and the most delegates on February 5th.
...
The Clinton infusion of $5 million -- and there are reports it could end up being as much as $20 million -- will give them huge resources for the next set of primaries and caucuses.
...
Just two weeks ago we were behind by double-digits in many of the states that voted yesterday, but Barack won 13 states to 8 states for Hillary Clinton, with one state (New Mexico) still counting votes.
...
We won yesterday because thousands upon thousands of individual supporters canvassed their neighborhoods, talked to their neighbors and friends, and made phone calls to remind their fellow supporters to get out the vote.
And we accomplished all of this with a campaign funded by ordinary people giving only what they can afford.
...
Here are some details about yesterday's historic victory. According to official results and exit polls:
Barack won 2-to-1 in traditionally conservative states where Democrats are hungry for a nominee who can change the map and help Democrats up and down the ticket win in November
Our winning coalition included Americans of every race, background, and gender -- including 64% of women in Georgia
We scored wins in every region of the country -- New England, the Mid-Atlantic, the South, the Midwest, the Rocky Mountain states, and the West
Americans had a clear choice to make yesterday, and they chose Barack Obama."
Post-Super Tuesday Analysis
Republicans:
Huckabee, though he had a suprising showing, might as well be out of the race. Romney follows suit. McCain is just a few delegates away from winning outright, but as far as momentum goes, the race is over.
***PA (Political Analyses) now predicts John McCain will be the Republican nominee.***
Democrats:
Obama managed a slight delegate victory, but this race is anyone's game. This race could go to the Democratic convention, and, if it does, expect the DNC to change its rules regarding superdelegates. Predictions on Saturday's caucuses will follow in a few days.
Huckabee, though he had a suprising showing, might as well be out of the race. Romney follows suit. McCain is just a few delegates away from winning outright, but as far as momentum goes, the race is over.
***PA (Political Analyses) now predicts John McCain will be the Republican nominee.***
Democrats:
Obama managed a slight delegate victory, but this race is anyone's game. This race could go to the Democratic convention, and, if it does, expect the DNC to change its rules regarding superdelegates. Predictions on Saturday's caucuses will follow in a few days.
Why Should Clinton be Afraid?
This article was posted on The Politico.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8363.html
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8363.html
Dems Delegate Update
In the end, it appears that Obama has come out ahead in the delegate race, with a slight lead of ~15 delegates.
Results
McCain and Clinton won California, but Obama was close behind. For the night, Clinton won 584 delegates, Obama 563. That brings the delegate totals, with superdelegates, to Clinton 728, Obama 633. In the end, this is anybody's race.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
End of Coverage for tonight
Tomorrow, look for delegate counts, etc. For now, though, Huckabee has won Georgia's GOP Primary.
Obama v. Clinton in Red States
Obama - AL, GA, UT, KS, ND, (5)
Clinton - AR, TN, OK (3)
Look for this when he talks about his bipartisan appeal.
Clinton - AR, TN, OK (3)
Look for this when he talks about his bipartisan appeal.
Obama camp predicts delegate victory
"We are, in terms of delegates, ahead currently: about 606 to 534, in terms of pledged delegates awarded tonight," -David Plouffe.
Does it ever end?
CNN now projects Romney to win Minnesota. The results are starting to trickle in for California. So far, 1 % of the precincts are reporting.
Thoughts on the Democratic side
This is a mid-result analysis. So far, just as I predicted, Obama has (delegate-wise) trailed Clinton by a slight margin. No real frontrunner will emerge after tonight, nor will either candidate have the coveted momentum going into Saturday's caucuses and primaries. The Republican side, however, is another story. McCain will come out of tonight with all the momentum and with a HUGE delegate lead. I think he'll be within a few hundred of the 'magic number' of 1,091. I'm now prepared to predict that we'll have a November matchup of Obama or Clinton v. McCain.
Add 2 for Obama
Obama takes Connecticut and Kansas, 2 states which he campaigned heavily in. Clinton also campaigned heavily in Connecticut.
AP Prediction Recaps
The following have been given these predictions:
Obama: AL, DE, GA, IL
Clinton: AR, MA, NJ, NY, OK, TN
Romney: MA, UT
Paul: N/a
McCain: CT, DE, IL, NJ, NY
Huckabee: AR, WV
Obama: AL, DE, GA, IL
Clinton: AR, MA, NJ, NY, OK, TN
Romney: MA, UT
Paul: N/a
McCain: CT, DE, IL, NJ, NY
Huckabee: AR, WV
The AP calls another prediction back
The AP has now decided AL too close to call at this point.
UPDATE: They've given it back to him. Silly AP.
UPDATE: They've given it back to him. Silly AP.
Updates
The AP has decided the Georgia GOP primary too close to call, and has given Clinton NY. Huckabee has picked up AL.
A few more predictions (AP)
Arkansas goes to Huckabee and Clinton. Clinton also picks up TN. @Dolphins123 It's up in the air. Only time will tell.
Predictions Rolling In
The AP now predicts the following to win these states:
Obama: GA, IL
Clinton: OK
McCain: CT, IL, NJ
Huckabee: WV
Romney: Mass.
Paul: n/a
Obama: GA, IL
Clinton: OK
McCain: CT, IL, NJ
Huckabee: WV
Romney: Mass.
Paul: n/a
West Virginia Republicans
W. Virginia's GOP held a state convention today, and, with 52%, Mike Huckabee took away the state's 18 delegates.
The Polls
While I'm a little skeptical about the polls, Obama, according to the realclearpolitics.com average, has narrowed Clinton's national lead to 2.6% and, as of Feb. 5th, he now has a slight lead in California. The Zogby poll, in fact, has him up with a 10% lead.
Howard Wolfson (Clinton campaign director) Conference Call
"It is possible that Senator Obama will come out of the night having won more delegates than [Senator Clinton], and it is possible that we will come out of the night having won more delegates than Senator Obama," he said. "I don’t think that either side is in a position to win appreciably more delegates than the other."
Also, some California gaming: "Judging by the Zogby poll, if Senator Obama doesn’t win by 13 points in California, it will have to be considerd a disappointing evening."
He said that given the Kennedy "machine," it should also be considered a "disappointment" if Obama doesn't win Massachusetts.
And some sarcastic spin: "Whoever wins New York should be declared the winner and thus be given momentum and bragging rights," he said, arguing more seriously that the key would be retaining Clinton's lead in the overall delegate count, which includes superdelegates."
It appears that Clinton campaign isn't expecting what they were just a week ago.
Also, some California gaming: "Judging by the Zogby poll, if Senator Obama doesn’t win by 13 points in California, it will have to be considerd a disappointing evening."
He said that given the Kennedy "machine," it should also be considered a "disappointment" if Obama doesn't win Massachusetts.
And some sarcastic spin: "Whoever wins New York should be declared the winner and thus be given momentum and bragging rights," he said, arguing more seriously that the key would be retaining Clinton's lead in the overall delegate count, which includes superdelegates."
It appears that Clinton campaign isn't expecting what they were just a week ago.
Monday, February 4, 2008
The Bloomberg Factor
"dolphins123 said...
think bloomberg will join?"
Realistically, I don't know. But, if he does, though he has a nice sum of money in his war chest, I think he'll end up like Thompson: everyone thinks that if he joins, the race will change wildly and swing toward him. He joins and it turns out to be a poltical flop. He drops out. You can hold me to that.
think bloomberg will join?"
Realistically, I don't know. But, if he does, though he has a nice sum of money in his war chest, I think he'll end up like Thompson: everyone thinks that if he joins, the race will change wildly and swing toward him. He joins and it turns out to be a poltical flop. He drops out. You can hold me to that.
Maine Republican Caucus
The caucus results, though they're obviously going towards Romney, have been stuck at 68% of precincts reporting for 3 days now. Does anyone know anything about this?
Liveblogging Super Tuesday
I'll be liveblogging CNN/AP's predicitions tomorrow night. The analysis will follow later.
Memo from the Obama campaign
Even though this was probably been blogged by everyone and their brother, here goes. I think Obama will do far better than what is outlined in the memo.
"To: Interested Parties
From: David Plouffe
RE: Putting Tomorrow into Perspective
"Two weeks ago, a Clinton campaign adviser told CBS News that they believed they could “wrap up” the nomination on February 5th. As the “inevitable” national frontrunner, tomorrow should be the day when she sews up the nomination or builds a formidable delegate lead. But because of Obama’s growing momentum across the country, the Clinton campaign is now unlikely to reach their stated goals of wrapping up the nomination tomorrow.
"Senator Clinton is certainly the favorite on February 5, given the huge leads she has held in many of these contests throughout the course of the campaign and the political, historical and geographic advantages she enjoys in many of these states.
"For example, California, which Clinton led by 25 points in October and 12 points two weeks ago, was once seen as the Clinton campaign’s firewall and where they planned to run up an insurmountable lead in delegates. Former Governor Gray Davis, a Clinton supporter, said on MSNBC last week, “I am pleased to be for Hillary Clinton and I expect her to do very well in Super Tuesday. I expect her to win California by a sizable amount, at least double digits, do well in New York and New Jersey and Connecticut.”
"Based on her huge head start, Hillary Clinton should still win California, but is unlikely to achieve her goal of getting a sizeable share of the delegates.
"Our path to the nomination never factored in a big day for us on February 5. Rather, we always planned to stay close enough in the delegate count so that we could proceed to individually focus on the states in the next set of contests.
"We fully expect Senator Clinton to earn more delegates on February 5th and also to win more states. If we were to be within 100 delegates on that day and win a number of states, we will have met our threshold for success and will be best positioned to win the nomination in the coming months.
"A performance that exceeds those benchmarks, while unlikely, would put is in a surprisingly strong position heading into the rest of the February contests.
"While the Clinton campaign is furiously trying to spin the expectations game, it is important to look at where they were in some of the key states just a few weeks ago."
"To: Interested Parties
From: David Plouffe
RE: Putting Tomorrow into Perspective
"Two weeks ago, a Clinton campaign adviser told CBS News that they believed they could “wrap up” the nomination on February 5th. As the “inevitable” national frontrunner, tomorrow should be the day when she sews up the nomination or builds a formidable delegate lead. But because of Obama’s growing momentum across the country, the Clinton campaign is now unlikely to reach their stated goals of wrapping up the nomination tomorrow.
"Senator Clinton is certainly the favorite on February 5, given the huge leads she has held in many of these contests throughout the course of the campaign and the political, historical and geographic advantages she enjoys in many of these states.
"For example, California, which Clinton led by 25 points in October and 12 points two weeks ago, was once seen as the Clinton campaign’s firewall and where they planned to run up an insurmountable lead in delegates. Former Governor Gray Davis, a Clinton supporter, said on MSNBC last week, “I am pleased to be for Hillary Clinton and I expect her to do very well in Super Tuesday. I expect her to win California by a sizable amount, at least double digits, do well in New York and New Jersey and Connecticut.”
"Based on her huge head start, Hillary Clinton should still win California, but is unlikely to achieve her goal of getting a sizeable share of the delegates.
"Our path to the nomination never factored in a big day for us on February 5. Rather, we always planned to stay close enough in the delegate count so that we could proceed to individually focus on the states in the next set of contests.
"We fully expect Senator Clinton to earn more delegates on February 5th and also to win more states. If we were to be within 100 delegates on that day and win a number of states, we will have met our threshold for success and will be best positioned to win the nomination in the coming months.
"A performance that exceeds those benchmarks, while unlikely, would put is in a surprisingly strong position heading into the rest of the February contests.
"While the Clinton campaign is furiously trying to spin the expectations game, it is important to look at where they were in some of the key states just a few weeks ago."
Sunday, February 3, 2008
The Tightening Democratic Race and Explainations
This is the Gallup Daily Tracking poll for today (Feb. 3rd)
http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/020308DailyUpdateGraph2.gif
This CLEARLY shows that the democratic race is neck-in-neck, with no clear frontrunner. How things change after Super Tuesday is another story that is, for now, just speculation.
Obama raised $32 million dollars in January, over $1 million a day. These contributions came in small amounts from appx. 500,000 supporters chipping in an average in the ballpark of $64 each. With this money, his campaign has purchased a Super Bowl ad that will be played in a large number of Super Tuesday states. The ad is found at:
http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid353515028/bctid1402023943
Back to the tightening race. Clinton has had a huge lead throughout the campaign, getting into the range of 20 percentage points at times. Just look at California; Clinton, just a few days ago, had a lead of 12%, according to the RCP average, but today, she has a statistically insignificant 1.5% lead, with some polls showing him with a slight lead. (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ca/california_democratic_primary-259.html). Obama has capitalized upon endorsements from: The LA Times, a large number of Kennedys, including Ted Kennedy and Ethel Kennedy, JFK's widower, MoveOn.org, and others.
Stay tuned for more links and analyses.
http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/020308DailyUpdateGraph2.gif
This CLEARLY shows that the democratic race is neck-in-neck, with no clear frontrunner. How things change after Super Tuesday is another story that is, for now, just speculation.
Obama raised $32 million dollars in January, over $1 million a day. These contributions came in small amounts from appx. 500,000 supporters chipping in an average in the ballpark of $64 each. With this money, his campaign has purchased a Super Bowl ad that will be played in a large number of Super Tuesday states. The ad is found at:
http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid353515028/bctid1402023943
Back to the tightening race. Clinton has had a huge lead throughout the campaign, getting into the range of 20 percentage points at times. Just look at California; Clinton, just a few days ago, had a lead of 12%, according to the RCP average, but today, she has a statistically insignificant 1.5% lead, with some polls showing him with a slight lead. (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ca/california_democratic_primary-259.html). Obama has capitalized upon endorsements from: The LA Times, a large number of Kennedys, including Ted Kennedy and Ethel Kennedy, JFK's widower, MoveOn.org, and others.
Stay tuned for more links and analyses.
Super Tuesday: Predictions
On the Republican side:
McCain will win nationally with a margin of about 18%. This will give him a HUGE lead in delegates; not quite enough to technically seal the victory, but as far as momentum, the nomination will be won.
On the Democratic side:
Clinton will win nationally by a slight margin (perhaps 3-4%) and will win by a margin of ~20 delegates. Obama will win in the south (excluding Arkansas) and in the midwest and west (The Idaho, Dakotas area). Clinton will win the northeast and east and California and pacific northeast. Obama's lead with committed delegates will slip to within 15.
Post Super Tuesday analyses will follow on the 6th or late on the 5th.
McCain will win nationally with a margin of about 18%. This will give him a HUGE lead in delegates; not quite enough to technically seal the victory, but as far as momentum, the nomination will be won.
On the Democratic side:
Clinton will win nationally by a slight margin (perhaps 3-4%) and will win by a margin of ~20 delegates. Obama will win in the south (excluding Arkansas) and in the midwest and west (The Idaho, Dakotas area). Clinton will win the northeast and east and California and pacific northeast. Obama's lead with committed delegates will slip to within 15.
Post Super Tuesday analyses will follow on the 6th or late on the 5th.
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