This is the Gallup Daily Tracking poll for today (Feb. 3rd)
http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/020308DailyUpdateGraph2.gif
This CLEARLY shows that the democratic race is neck-in-neck, with no clear frontrunner. How things change after Super Tuesday is another story that is, for now, just speculation.
Obama raised $32 million dollars in January, over $1 million a day. These contributions came in small amounts from appx. 500,000 supporters chipping in an average in the ballpark of $64 each. With this money, his campaign has purchased a Super Bowl ad that will be played in a large number of Super Tuesday states. The ad is found at:
http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid353515028/bctid1402023943
Back to the tightening race. Clinton has had a huge lead throughout the campaign, getting into the range of 20 percentage points at times. Just look at California; Clinton, just a few days ago, had a lead of 12%, according to the RCP average, but today, she has a statistically insignificant 1.5% lead, with some polls showing him with a slight lead. (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ca/california_democratic_primary-259.html). Obama has capitalized upon endorsements from: The LA Times, a large number of Kennedys, including Ted Kennedy and Ethel Kennedy, JFK's widower, MoveOn.org, and others.
Stay tuned for more links and analyses.
Sunday, February 3, 2008
Super Tuesday: Predictions
On the Republican side:
McCain will win nationally with a margin of about 18%. This will give him a HUGE lead in delegates; not quite enough to technically seal the victory, but as far as momentum, the nomination will be won.
On the Democratic side:
Clinton will win nationally by a slight margin (perhaps 3-4%) and will win by a margin of ~20 delegates. Obama will win in the south (excluding Arkansas) and in the midwest and west (The Idaho, Dakotas area). Clinton will win the northeast and east and California and pacific northeast. Obama's lead with committed delegates will slip to within 15.
Post Super Tuesday analyses will follow on the 6th or late on the 5th.
McCain will win nationally with a margin of about 18%. This will give him a HUGE lead in delegates; not quite enough to technically seal the victory, but as far as momentum, the nomination will be won.
On the Democratic side:
Clinton will win nationally by a slight margin (perhaps 3-4%) and will win by a margin of ~20 delegates. Obama will win in the south (excluding Arkansas) and in the midwest and west (The Idaho, Dakotas area). Clinton will win the northeast and east and California and pacific northeast. Obama's lead with committed delegates will slip to within 15.
Post Super Tuesday analyses will follow on the 6th or late on the 5th.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
