Sunday, February 10, 2008
Maine Dems Analysis
While Obama came out with only a slight net gain in delegates, the momentum he gains from a five contest sweep is substantial. Given this, PA predicts an Obama sweep on Tuesday. This momentum will lead him to a larger lead in pledged delegates, but the contest will be far from over. Obama - 20 (states), Clinton - 11.
Predictions for the Potomac Primaries
Democrats:
Maryland and DC: These contests will go to Obama given the poll numbers (Obama in Maryland by 17.3% - RCP avg.) and the size of the African-American electorate.
Virginia: This, too, will go to Obama. The polls have him up by 21% (RCP Avg.) and his momentum will push him to a fairly large margin (10+%).
This will be another Obama sweep and will give him a sizeable lead among pledged delegates.
Republicans:
McCain may get some competition from Huckabee, but he'll come out victorious on Tuesday. If, however, he does not sweep, realistically, it won't matter, as he's essentially sealed the deal.
Maryland and DC: These contests will go to Obama given the poll numbers (Obama in Maryland by 17.3% - RCP avg.) and the size of the African-American electorate.
Virginia: This, too, will go to Obama. The polls have him up by 21% (RCP Avg.) and his momentum will push him to a fairly large margin (10+%).
This will be another Obama sweep and will give him a sizeable lead among pledged delegates.
Republicans:
McCain may get some competition from Huckabee, but he'll come out victorious on Tuesday. If, however, he does not sweep, realistically, it won't matter, as he's essentially sealed the deal.
Obama Wins Maine (Politico predicts)
With 79% of the precincts reporting, Obama has 59% of the vote, as opposed to Clinton's 41%. The margin is greater than predicted by PA, but, as predicted, Obama took his 5th victory of the weekend.
Clinton Campaign Manager Steps Down
Email from Patti Solis Doyle to Clinton staffers:
"Over a year ago Hillary launched her campaign for President.
Her announcement began a historic effort that has inspired millions and brought hundreds of thousands to their feet all across this nation.
I have been proud to manage this campaign, and prouder still to call Hillary my friend for more than sixteen years. I know that she will make a great President.
This has already been the longest Presidential campaign in the history of our nation, and one that has required enormous sacrifices from all of us and our families.
During the last month I have been working closely with my longtime friend, Maggie Williams.
This week Maggie will begin to assume the duties of campaign manager. I will serve as a senior adviser to Hillary and the campaign and travel with Hillary from time to time on the road. Maggie is a remarkable person and I am confident that she will do a fabulous job.
Although I will continue to see you all at headquarters, I would be remiss if I didn’t thank each of you for your dedication, excellence, and passion over the last year.
You are the best campaign staff in the history of Presidential politics and I am grateful to each of you for your hard work and friendship."
Maggie Williams, a former top Clinton White House aide will be taking Patti's place.
"Over a year ago Hillary launched her campaign for President.
Her announcement began a historic effort that has inspired millions and brought hundreds of thousands to their feet all across this nation.
I have been proud to manage this campaign, and prouder still to call Hillary my friend for more than sixteen years. I know that she will make a great President.
This has already been the longest Presidential campaign in the history of our nation, and one that has required enormous sacrifices from all of us and our families.
During the last month I have been working closely with my longtime friend, Maggie Williams.
This week Maggie will begin to assume the duties of campaign manager. I will serve as a senior adviser to Hillary and the campaign and travel with Hillary from time to time on the road. Maggie is a remarkable person and I am confident that she will do a fabulous job.
Although I will continue to see you all at headquarters, I would be remiss if I didn’t thank each of you for your dedication, excellence, and passion over the last year.
You are the best campaign staff in the history of Presidential politics and I am grateful to each of you for your hard work and friendship."
Maggie Williams, a former top Clinton White House aide will be taking Patti's place.
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