Tuesday, February 5, 2008
End of Coverage for tonight
Tomorrow, look for delegate counts, etc. For now, though, Huckabee has won Georgia's GOP Primary.
Obama v. Clinton in Red States
Obama - AL, GA, UT, KS, ND, (5)
Clinton - AR, TN, OK (3)
Look for this when he talks about his bipartisan appeal.
Clinton - AR, TN, OK (3)
Look for this when he talks about his bipartisan appeal.
Obama camp predicts delegate victory
"We are, in terms of delegates, ahead currently: about 606 to 534, in terms of pledged delegates awarded tonight," -David Plouffe.
Does it ever end?
CNN now projects Romney to win Minnesota. The results are starting to trickle in for California. So far, 1 % of the precincts are reporting.
Thoughts on the Democratic side
This is a mid-result analysis. So far, just as I predicted, Obama has (delegate-wise) trailed Clinton by a slight margin. No real frontrunner will emerge after tonight, nor will either candidate have the coveted momentum going into Saturday's caucuses and primaries. The Republican side, however, is another story. McCain will come out of tonight with all the momentum and with a HUGE delegate lead. I think he'll be within a few hundred of the 'magic number' of 1,091. I'm now prepared to predict that we'll have a November matchup of Obama or Clinton v. McCain.
Add 2 for Obama
Obama takes Connecticut and Kansas, 2 states which he campaigned heavily in. Clinton also campaigned heavily in Connecticut.
AP Prediction Recaps
The following have been given these predictions:
Obama: AL, DE, GA, IL
Clinton: AR, MA, NJ, NY, OK, TN
Romney: MA, UT
Paul: N/a
McCain: CT, DE, IL, NJ, NY
Huckabee: AR, WV
Obama: AL, DE, GA, IL
Clinton: AR, MA, NJ, NY, OK, TN
Romney: MA, UT
Paul: N/a
McCain: CT, DE, IL, NJ, NY
Huckabee: AR, WV
The AP calls another prediction back
The AP has now decided AL too close to call at this point.
UPDATE: They've given it back to him. Silly AP.
UPDATE: They've given it back to him. Silly AP.
Updates
The AP has decided the Georgia GOP primary too close to call, and has given Clinton NY. Huckabee has picked up AL.
A few more predictions (AP)
Arkansas goes to Huckabee and Clinton. Clinton also picks up TN. @Dolphins123 It's up in the air. Only time will tell.
Predictions Rolling In
The AP now predicts the following to win these states:
Obama: GA, IL
Clinton: OK
McCain: CT, IL, NJ
Huckabee: WV
Romney: Mass.
Paul: n/a
Obama: GA, IL
Clinton: OK
McCain: CT, IL, NJ
Huckabee: WV
Romney: Mass.
Paul: n/a
West Virginia Republicans
W. Virginia's GOP held a state convention today, and, with 52%, Mike Huckabee took away the state's 18 delegates.
The Polls
While I'm a little skeptical about the polls, Obama, according to the realclearpolitics.com average, has narrowed Clinton's national lead to 2.6% and, as of Feb. 5th, he now has a slight lead in California. The Zogby poll, in fact, has him up with a 10% lead.
Howard Wolfson (Clinton campaign director) Conference Call
"It is possible that Senator Obama will come out of the night having won more delegates than [Senator Clinton], and it is possible that we will come out of the night having won more delegates than Senator Obama," he said. "I don’t think that either side is in a position to win appreciably more delegates than the other."
Also, some California gaming: "Judging by the Zogby poll, if Senator Obama doesn’t win by 13 points in California, it will have to be considerd a disappointing evening."
He said that given the Kennedy "machine," it should also be considered a "disappointment" if Obama doesn't win Massachusetts.
And some sarcastic spin: "Whoever wins New York should be declared the winner and thus be given momentum and bragging rights," he said, arguing more seriously that the key would be retaining Clinton's lead in the overall delegate count, which includes superdelegates."
It appears that Clinton campaign isn't expecting what they were just a week ago.
Also, some California gaming: "Judging by the Zogby poll, if Senator Obama doesn’t win by 13 points in California, it will have to be considerd a disappointing evening."
He said that given the Kennedy "machine," it should also be considered a "disappointment" if Obama doesn't win Massachusetts.
And some sarcastic spin: "Whoever wins New York should be declared the winner and thus be given momentum and bragging rights," he said, arguing more seriously that the key would be retaining Clinton's lead in the overall delegate count, which includes superdelegates."
It appears that Clinton campaign isn't expecting what they were just a week ago.
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