Saturday, February 9, 2008

Feb. 9th Analysis

Dems:
-Obama is gaining momentum, which he will capitalize upon in the Potomac Primaries on Tuesday, and, if it stands, into the coming weeks. Clinton seems to be banking on Texas and Ohio, but there are a fair number of primaries and caucuses between now and then, and he could build a somewhat sizeable lead.

Republicans:
-Huckabee got a few key wins, but McCain is an unsurmountable candidate now. Conservative republicans were splitting between Romney and Huckabee, and now, with the loss of Romney, conservatives are coming behind Huckabee. If Romney had dropped out on the Monday before Super Tuesday (Mundane Monday?), this could have be an entirely different race.

Predictions for Sunday, Feb. 10th

Maine Dems Caucus:
PA predicts an Obama victory, though delegate-wise, it will be slight: a difference of about 3 delegates.

Huckabee Pulls Off Stunning Night

Huckabee has now won Louisiana, predicts CNN.

Obama wins Louisiana (AP Prediction)

With 38% of the precincts reporting, Obama has 53% of the vote, Clinton 39%. This makes tonight a sweep for Obama, including the Virgin Islands.

Washington, Nebraska go to Obama (AP Prediction)

With 73% of precincts reporting, Obama has 69% of the vote, Clinton 31% in Nebraska. 56% of the precincts are reporting in Washington, Obama is carrying 67%, Clinton 32%.

Huckabee wins Kansas

Huckabee has proven me worng, winning 60% of the vote with 100% of precincts reporting. McCain took 24%.

Ron Paul's Attention Diverted to Congressional District

Similar to what happened to Rep. Kucinich, Rep. Paul has come under fire for his representation of his congressional district. Therefore, his attention has been diverted to a reelection bid. As he said in an email to his supporters: "I also have another priority. I have constituents in my home district that I must serve. I cannot and will not let them down. And I have another battle I must face here as well. If I were to lose the primary for my congressional seat, all our opponents would react with glee, and pretend it was a rejection of our ideas. I cannot and will not let that happen."